Gold Price Outlook: Why Gold Is Holding Above USD 4,000 Despite 5% Bond Yields

Gold Price Outlook: Why Gold Is Holding Above USD 4,000 Despite 5% Bond Yields

By Fazil Thaha, Faz Gold

Gold is holding above USD 4,000 per troy ounce because many big investors still see it as protection against rising government debt and weaker currencies, even though US bond yields above 5% make cash and bonds more attractive. That was the main message from the gold industry's biggest yearly meeting, which runs in Italy until 6 October. Here is a simple guide to the gold price outlook being discussed, and what it means for you in Singapore.

Where gold and silver prices are now

Spot gold was around USD 4,138 per troy ounce late on 5 October in New York, according to Kitco, and Trading Economics showed it close to USD 4,140 on 6 October. That is near a two month low and roughly a quarter below the record of about USD 5,608 per troy ounce reached in January 2026.

Silver was around USD 60.90 per troy ounce late on 5 October (Kitco), with Trading Economics showing about USD 61.08 the same day. That puts the gold to silver ratio at about 68. The ratio simply tells you how many ounces of silver you can buy with one ounce of gold.

For live Singapore dollar prices, including our premium, please check the product pages on fazgold.com.sg or ask at the counter. Converted figures you see online will not match what you actually pay or receive.

What happened at the LBMA conference

The LBMA (London Bullion Market Association) is the body that sets the standards for the global wholesale gold and silver market. Together with the LPPM, its sister body for the platinum and palladium market, it is holding its Global Precious Metals Conference in Sorrento, Italy, from 4 to 6 October. Refiners, banks, fund managers and dealers attend every year.

One panel looked at what is often called the "debasement trade". Debasement simply means a currency slowly losing its buying power, for example because governments keep borrowing and spending. The debasement trade is buying assets like gold to protect against that.

According to Kitco's report from the panel:

  • Vikram Dhawan of Nippon India Mutual Fund said he can see government debt rising but no sign of spending discipline.
  • Speakers noted that gold has stayed above USD 4,000 even though US 10 year bond yields have climbed above 5%.
  • The usual pattern, where gold falls when bond yields rise, has become much weaker since the pandemic, and at times the two have moved together.
  • Shayne McGuire of the Teacher Retirement System of Texas said gold is still largely missing from long term investment plans at major US pension funds.

Why bond yields matter for gold

A bond yield is the interest a government pays when it borrows money. Gold pays no interest, so when safe bonds pay a lot, some investors prefer bonds. On 5 October the US 10 year yield was about 5.31%, the highest since 2002, according to Kitco. The US dollar was also firm, which tends to make gold more expensive for buyers using other currencies.

Michael Khouw, chief strategist at YieldMax, told Kitco on 5 October that yields above 5% can compete with gold, but they do not stop money losing value over time through inflation. He expects inflation to stay above 3%.

US data has also been mixed. The US added only 29,000 jobs in September, far fewer than expected, which lowered the odds of another US interest rate rise in October, according to Kitco. But a measure of prices paid by US service companies rose to its highest level since July 2022, which keeps inflation worries alive. I explained the yield story in more detail in why gold is not going up despite softer US inflation.

What one big bank is saying about gold and silver

Daniel Ghali, head of metals research at Deutsche Bank, told BNN Bloomberg on 2 October (as reported by Kitco) that gold has been more resilient than expected and has not made a new low since July. In his view, investors are holding less gold than usual, which could leave room for buying later. This is one bank's opinion, not a certainty.

He was more cautious on silver. He said London silver stocks are at their highest since November 2024 and that Chinese demand for silver in solar panels has fallen by about a third this year. He expects silver to do worse than gold for now. We covered silver's recent weakness in why silver is falling faster than gold.

What this means for Singapore buyers

Here is how I would think about it as a dealer, without telling anyone what to do:

  • Prices are lower than earlier this year, but nobody knows the bottom. Gold near USD 4,140 per troy ounce is well below January's record. Experts at the conference had different views, and prices can still fall further or rise.
  • Buying slowly can reduce timing stress. Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) simply means putting the same amount of money into gold every month, whether the price is high or low. You can see how this has worked in the past with the Monthly Savings Plan in our free gold calculator Singapore tools. Past results do not guarantee future results.
  • Waiting for a price? Let us watch it for you. Our free gold price alert sends you one email when our live price reaches your target.
  • Thinking of selling? The buyback price is the price we pay you when you sell to us. Check today's figures on our gold buyback rates page, or use the sell calculator to see your payout before you come in.
  • Silver needs more patience. Silver moves more sharply than gold in both directions. If you hold or buy silver bars or silver coins, be ready for bigger swings.

All of these tools are free, with no fee, no sign up and no obligation to buy or sell. You can browse our gold bars to compare sizes and brands, or see all the tools in our guide to our free gold tools.

The bottom line

Gold is being pulled two ways. High US bond yields and a strong dollar are holding it back. Worries about government debt and long term inflation are keeping many investors interested. The people who trade gold for a living do not agree on what comes next, so be wary of anyone who sounds certain. Buy only what you can hold through ups and downs, and keep your receipts and certificates safe.

Visit Faz Gold

Our counter is at 10 Jalan Besar, #B1-19/20, Sim Lim Tower, Singapore 208787, open daily from 10.30am to 8pm. You can also WhatsApp us at +65 9767 7774 for live prices.

Sources

This article is for general information and market commentary only and is not financial or investment advice.

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